Archive for May, 2006

Sunday Forecast is a Scorcher

Sunday, May 28th, 2006

Today will be a repeat of yesterday as far as the weather is concerned. Early morning temperatures are pushing into the lower 70s and will settle near 90 degrees through the afternoon. Winds will be light and sunshine will be plentiful. A few isolated t’showers are possible this morning and this afternoon but most of us will stay dry. On Saturday the few t’showers around were in western and southern parts of the mid-state; I think just about any part of the mid-state is fair game for isolated pop-up activity today. No reason to cancel any plans outside. Winds are calm through the lower and middle atmosphere so any t’showers that develop will be slow-movers. By the way…our afternoon temperatures will run 9 degrees above average but not break a record (96 degrees back on this date in 1911).

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Lightning Lit Up The Sky Last Night At The Tullahoma Airport…The Free Tullahoma Air Show Lights Up The Sky Today and Tomorrow

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

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The Tullahoma Airport Friday Night. Picture by Jerry Overcast.

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Today was beautiful. Picture by Jerry Overcast

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Picture by Jerry Overcast

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Picture by Jerry Overcast

Unofficial Start of Summer Brining on The Heat, Humidity, and Isolated Storms

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

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Like somebody flicked a switch, Memorial Day Weekend brought the summer like weather, as an upper level high built over the region. Highs in the upper atmosphere have warm air underneath them, and that’s why it’s warmed up so much.

We have had a few t’storms, especially in southern Middle Tennessee, where Lawrenceburg and Lawrence County received up to 3″ of rain in an hour. The same for Hardin County earlier.

Look for more of the same on Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a slightly greater chance for scattered storms on Monday.

Don’t cancel your holiday plans, there will be sunshine, but if one of those isolated storms breaks out near you, get inside, away from the lightning.

A Few Slow-Moving PM T’Showers

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

In the comments of my prior entry David F. of Murfreesboro posts: Those people that are getting rainfall this afternoon are getting soaked. Those storms aren’t even moving. The begin and end right where the start just about.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. With a ridge of high pressure aloft there’s little in the way of steering currents to move our afternoon pop-up t’showers. So, they’re not moving much at all. A flash flood warning was issued for southern Hardin County for this reason. It is nice to wake up from my Saturday afternoon nap and see most of the activity in western sections of the mid-state near the Tennessee River…right where News 2’s Predictor computer model said it would be. Counties (or parts of counties) dealing with wet weather this afternoon include: Stewart, Henry, Benton, Houston, Humphreys, Decatur, Hardin, Perry, Lewis and Wayne. Some of the cumulus towers outside my window in southern Davidson County look capable of a short-lived shower but the majority of the area should hold onto dry weather through the rest of the afternoon.

Behind the Scenes: Forecasting

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

I thought I’d offer a behind the scenes look at my forecast to give you a better understanding of our storm chances for the next several days. Did you know that the thickness of the atmosphere relative to the Earth is comparable to the skin of an apple? Meteorologists break the sky down to many different levels for observational and forecasting purposes. We focus on conditions at the surface (we live there, after all) all the way up to 30,000 feet around the level of the jet stream. The weather maps in the extended entry depict forecast conditions around 18,000 feet (roughly the half-way point) and offer a good glimpse of the overall predicted weather pattern. The solid black lines are contours of equal height and indicate the presence of a ridge of high pressure or a trough of low pressure. The areas of red are upper air disturbances (shortwaves). With heat and humidity in place (i.e., summer in Tennessee) a small upper air disturbance is usually enough to encourage upward air motion and trigger a few thunderstorms. I don’t know why, but it feels good to boil four years of calculus-based meteorology into a couple of sentences! Now to the computer maps and the misty distant future.
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Tullahoma Air Show

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

Thanks to viewer Jerry Overcast for sending pictures from Tullahoma. He snapped some great shots on Friday during the practice sessions for this weekend’s free air show. Click below to see an impressive lightning shot from storms that rumbled through southwest Coffee County yesterday evening.
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Hopkinsville Heads Up

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

At 7:43 am a thunderstorm is rolling through northern Christian County in Kentucky; just a few minutes from reaching Hopkinsville with lightning, a heavy downpour and the threat of small hail.

Saturday Forecast Looks Warm

Saturday, May 27th, 2006

Mild this morning with wake-up temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs this afternoon will hit 90 degrees in most places with dewpoints in the 60s (you’ll notice the humidity). Breezes will be light and we’ll see a good dose of sunshine. I expect a handful of t’showers and t’storms over the next few days but many of us will stay dry. A few t’showers may pop up before lunchtime but the afternoon will bring a slightly higher risk for a quick-passing downpour. I can’t rule out an isolated spot with hail but don’t expect as many strong storms as Friday evening. Meteorological summer starts June 1st; our Memorial Weekend preview comes at no extra charge. Enjoy it!

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Hail Continues To Fall In South and West Middle Tennessee

Friday, May 26th, 2006

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Hail in the Wheel community west of Shelbyville by Philip Elgin

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Hail in Waverly from Dave Detmer

Large hail and dangerous lightning will continue to move southeastward through southern and western Middle Tennessee. This activity will be around for another 2 hours or so.

Nashville is being missed by these storms, as well as much of northern Middle Tennessee.

Baseball Sized Hail Reported in Bedford County

Friday, May 26th, 2006

I just got off of the phone with a guy in the Wheel community in Bedford County (west of Shelbyville). He was reporting 3″ hail. You could hear the hail hitting the roof of his front porch as he was talking, and it was so loud, I couldn’t hear him that well at times. Wow!