No severe weather at the moment, but a line of thundershowers stretches north to south across Davidson County at 10:00 am with brief heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder. I’ll watch things from the Storm Center and won’t hesitate to jump into programming with updates if necessary. If any severe thunderstorm warnings are issued we’ll crawl that on the bottom of the television screen. Rely on the “NWS Radar Loop” and “Watches and Warnings” links above for the latest if you’re stuck behind a desk at the j-o-b.

Transition day today as we leave behind warm Spring weather and go toward temperatures below normal. Today a cold front pushes through during the early afternoon. Winds will pick up this morning from the southwest, turn to the west and come from the north by end of day. Heavy rain and a few strong storms this afternoon and evening, the rain could linger all the way into tomorrow morning (later in the day tomorrow for the southern counties). HPC and NCAR have very different frontal positions over the next 24 hours, it’ll be a wet day tomorrow with the NCAR solution plays out with a strong low developing over southern Alabama. QPF totals are impressive but the SPC has backed off a little on the severe threat; we’ll still see a few warnings but I’m thinking heavy rain will be the main threat along with strong winds.

Latest models suggest early to midafternoon storms for middle Tennessee:

Our Predictor model maps out the timing of a squall line between about 1pm (north and west of Nashville to 6pm south and east.
But keep an eye on the sky and on News 2 because it could begin earlier… say by Noon.

While we can never really rule out a brief tornado with any strong storm activity and we will be watching for that, it stills looks like our biggest threat will be hail and areas of damaging winds. We don’t take that lightly because straightline or downburst winds can cause as much damage as a weak tornado.

YOU HAVE GOT TO CHECK OUT THE MONDAY TORNADO VIDEO FROM AN OKLAHOMA TV STATION.
CUT AND PASTE: http://www.kfor.com/
Ron Jarrell tipped me off to this in an email… THX, Ron!!

We’ll again have an afternoon high in the 80 degree range today; the last of the warm weather for awhile. Morning clouds and scattered light rain giving way to a little sunshine this afternoon with a few thunderstorms around later today. Just like yesterday most of the activity will be north and west of Nashville. Tonight rain to our north and very mild; a low in the low60’s. Be ready because by Wednesday that will be our daytime high. Between now and the cooler weather we’ll have some big rains and some strong storms on Tuesday. Overnight lows will get slightly below normal; in the mid 40’s.

We continue to watch rain move in from the Land between the Lakes area (where the Tennessee and Cumberland River run parallel to each other as they head north to the Ohio). Expect some light rain from Linden to Waverly over to Centerville this morning; light stuff. This is helping prime the pump for later today as the southwest surface wind takes this moisture and moves it into our northern viewing area. This afternoon if we some sunshine to increase instability we’ll see some storms north of I-40. If the cloud cover continues it’ll be more just rain than T-storms and I would have blown my daytime high forecast of 81. This training of Precipitation on the warm side of the stationary front looks rather steady which would at the very least insure more mid-level clouds.

I’m watching a cluster of thunderstorms over eastern Missouri currently diving toward us from the northwest. I’ve been thinking that most of the storm activity would be stretched from west to east north of I-40 and more in Kentucky then in Tennessee. The storm track however points to more along the Tennessee River focused on the Land Between the Lakes area. We’ll see, I still think the southern counties will stay mostly dry this afternoon with the northern counties getting about a 30% storm chance since the frontal boundary will be closer to them. This morning however the Northwest corner along with the western third might see some dying storms moving in from the northwest.