Increasing clouds tonight with lows in the middle 30s, and toward daybreak on Saturday a weak system could bring a quick-moving batch of light rain or flurries (northeast), especially for area along and north of the I-40 corridor.

The rest of tomorrow looks mostly sunny, but breezy from the southwest around 10-20mph, and highs only in the middle to upper 40s.

It stays breezy on Sunday, but dry and slightly warmer with highs in the low 50s. South-southwest winds around 10-20mph.

Dry conditions stay until Wednesday as the next system moves back into the area along with highs in the low 60s.

Clouds and lingering drizzle will push east of I-65 pretty quickly this morning, but linger near the Cumberland Plateau through 10:00 a.m.

Wake-up temperatures are in the upper 30s and lower 40s with a chilly breeze. With increasing sunshine this morning, we’ll hit the upper 40s to near 50 this afternoon.

Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the middle 30s, and toward daybreak on Saturday a weak system could bring a quick-moving batch of light rain or flurries, especially for area along and north of the I-40 corridor. The rest of the day looks mostly sunny, but breezy and only in the middle 40s.

The moderate to heavy rains continue through this Thursday evening with scattered light showers even during the overnight hours.

Evening temps will hover in the upper 50s on a south wind but eventually the winds will shift from the northwest and by early morning Friday we should dip to the upper 30s for lows.

While we may have a lingering early morning shower east of Nashville, the sun will pop out from west to east. It will be a cooler day with highs near 50 degrees.

Scattered rain showers this morning will increase in coverage and intensity by late morning, especially for areas that are southeast of Nashville. Temperatures are in the upper 50s and lower 60s, despite the clouds and wet weather.

I expect up to 1″ of rain to fall in the Nashville area; probably less for areas north and west of Davidson County. The southeast corner of Middle Tennessee could see up to 2″ of rain, so small stream flooding could be an issue there. I can’t rule out isolated strong thunderstorms across the far southern part of Middle Tennessee, although the Storm Prediction Center confines the slight risk of severe weather to northern MS, AL & GA (see below).

The rain will taper off late this afternoon into evening from west to east as a cold front pushes through. A northwest breeze will drop readings into the upper 30s after midnight.

Highs Friday through the weekend will only be in the upper 40s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Severe weather threat from SPC

Mainly dry but cloudy this Wednesday evening. Temperatures are chilly north of I-40 and mild south. A warm front is lifting north through the midstate so the cooler temperatures will rise to the low 50s by daybreak.

Heavy rains will move slowly across the midstate on Thursday. 1 to 2 inches of rain will be common, and some areas could receive more. The heaviest rain should be in Nashville and up and down the I-65 corridor late morning until just after the lunch hour. However, it will rain most of the day.

There will be some thunder and lightning, but it does not look like a severe weather situation for middle Tennessee or Kentucky. However, flash flooding could be a problem. We will also keep an eye on area creeks, streams and rivers for any flooding concerns.

Temps will rise to near 60 just ahead of the heaviest rains (midday for Nashville) and then turn much cooler Thursday night as the rain ends and the skies clear.

It’s in the 30s and 40s this morning with spotty rain showers moving into Middle Tennessee. Occasional showers and clouds will be with us today, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It won’t be an all-day washout, but the umbrella or a rain jacket is a good idea.

A slight rain chance continues this evening and tonight as temperatures hover in the mid-to-upper 40s.

A front on Thursday will mean heavier rain and possible thunderstorms, although widespread severe weather should stay well to the south of Tennessee. A south wind will push temperatures to near 60 degrees. 1″ to 2″ of rain may fall through the day.

The rain will depart Thursday night, and cooler air pushes in for Friday through the weekend (highs those days will only be in the 40s, with overnight lows below freezing).

Fifteen years ago today an F4 tornado ripped through Murfreesboro injuring a total of 18 people. Murfreesboro has seen many significant tornadoes in its recorded history. The first, an F3, in April of 1974 which was part of the Super Outbreak. Another was an F3 in April of 2002 which injured 31 people. Then, recently, in April 2009 an EF4 tornado killed 2 people and injured 41. What do those three have in common? They all occurred in April. However, the one that occurred exactly 15 years ago today, was in January, a month where folks in middle Tennessee are usually dealing with cold temperatures or snow, not large tornadoes.

Below is a map of the severe weather on January 24, 1997:

In the late afternoon of January 24, 1997, an F4 tornado struck the Southridge Subdivision, four miles southwest of Murfreesboro proper. Thankfully, no one was killed, but there were 18 injuries and nearly $5 million in damage. The path length of the tornado was 6.5 miles with a maximum width of 300 yards. A total of 44 homes were destroyed and 47 other homes had minor/moderate damage.  Other tornadoes from that same outbreak struck in AL, KY, LA, and MS - killing a total of 1 person, injuring 43 people, and causing nearly $17 million in damage.

Below is an image from a 1913 tornado that ripped through the Square in Rutherford county:

Sources: NWS, Murfreesboro Post, Storm Prediction Center

It’s in the 30s this morning, with patchy frost but a clear sky. This afternoon will be mostly sunny and in the middle 50s.

Lows tonight will drop back to the middle 30s with a few high clouds.

Our next weather-maker arrives Wednesday into Thursday. Expect clouds and a few showers tomorrow, with an east breeze keeping us in the lower 50s. A front on Thursday will mean thunderstorms, borderline strong, although widespread severe weather seems unlikely. Temperatures will be near 60 degrees.

The rain will depart by early Friday morning, as some cooler air pushes in. Highs Friday through Monday will be below average, only in the 40s. Much of the day will actually be in the 30s on Saturday and Sunday. I can’t rule out a few flurries on Saturday, either.

I just received a good viewer question about winter severe weather - I thought others might be interested in my quick and simple answer.

I’ve always wondered this and I can’t seem to figure it out. I notice we have the most tornado deaths in the U.S., mainly because of it being at night. Now my question is, Why does it almost ALWAYS seem that it storms bad in the middle Tennessee area at night? I know it storms during the day too. I’m just stumped. I’ve even jokingly thought that the cold fronts slow down in the plains and wait for it to go dark before it decides to come in. Anyways an answer would be great.

And here’s my take:

Severe storms in the cold season don’t necessarily prefer night to daylight. But, they can happen after dark because the main driver is the dynamic set-up (the jet stream, the wind speed/strength aloft) as opposed to the thermodynamic set-up (i.e., temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s and only marginal instability).

Because of the sometimes overnight nature of cold season severe weather, many people who aren’t anticipating storms are caught sleeping. People who aren’t aware of the storms also can’t see the tornadoes and storm clouds like they could during the daytime, and don’t have ample time to get to safe place.

In warm season severe weather, the thermodynamics tend to be the stronger component of a system (because the jet stream is lifting north into Canada and is not as strong in Tennessee as it is during the winter) so you get a more daytime-dependent severe weather set-up based on the temperature and dewpoint and resultant atmospheric instability.

Sunday night’s storms are long gone, and we’ll have a couple days to dry out.

Monday temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60° with a brisk west wind and increasing sunshine.

Overnight lows will dip to the middle 30s with clear sky and lighter winds.

Tuesday brings middle 50s and more sunshine.

Wednesday into Thursday features another round of thunderstorms, although at this point it does not look to be as severe as last night’s system. That mid-week system will still be worth watching, though.

Cool rain on Friday will yield to a chilly but dry weekend.