Good morning! A cloudy start with some mist/drizzle going on. We will have the clouds hang overhead most of the day. Teamed with a northwest wind this will make for some cooler weather for our Friday- highs today will struggle to get to the upper 60’s (a “normal” high if this was early April). Warmer weather tomorrow with a brisk south wind and some sunshine- highs will get into the upper 70’s.  Its been since last Friday when we’ve enjoyed temperatures typical of the season, we should start seeing some 80 degree weather next week. Another chance of rain over the weekend- a cold front comes through late Saturday/early Sunday giving us some light rain and cooler weather (mid-70’s) for Sunday day.

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A last line of showers marches through Nashville during the 10 o’clock hour.  It will continue east and as it passes winds will shift from the northwest at 10-15 with temps dropping into the 50s.

Friday will leave a low-level cloud cover from Nashville east and that will hold temps in the upper 60s there.  Areas west of town will see more sunshine and should push into the low 70s.

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Although our southern counties are seeing light rain, it is not near the amount anticipated.  Here in Nashville and the north part of Middle Tennessee rains have fizzled for now.  There still may be some additional shower or t’shower activity later as a front and low approach from the west, but for now we have a big break.  Morning rains dumped about 1/2-1″ of rain in many areas around Nashville.  Nashville has had .55″ since around midnight.

The Storm Prediction Center has removed the “slight risk” from our southern counties, so severe weather is not expected there.

The best news is the steady rains are soaking the Birmingham to Atlanta corridor that really needs the rain and is still considered to be in “extreme drought” (see graphic in entry below).

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The picture above from News 2 Stormtracker back at 10:33am this morning shows heavy rains in Alabama moving northeastward towards the areas that were most stricken by the drought.  We actually still have severe drought conditions in the southeastern corner of Middle Tennessee and continued exceptional drought from around Birmingham, AL to Atlanta, GA as you can see below:

This rain is good news, but we hope we don’t see too much in too short a period of time causing flooding.  That is possible in some of our southern counties, so drive carefully today.  In south Middle Tennessee take care around those low water bridges (only safe during low water).   Remember, “Turn around, don’t drown.” 

In addition, we can’t rule out some strong or severe storms in our southern counties later today as warmer air pushes in behind this initial surge of rain.  A low pressure center and accompanying cold front could kick off some strong storms in that “warm sector” later today.  Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook.

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Morning light rain becomes heavy rain with storms this afternoon and evening. We could end up with 1″ totals common across the area with our southern counties getting close to 2″. Some severe weather risk across the south this afternoon as well. The big rains around this evening until a cold front moves through late. This will cause the rain to taper off, maybe a passing light shower tomorrow morning but a mostly cloudy and mostly dry Friday ahead.

 

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Scattered morning showers will turn in to downpours by afternoon and evening… especially across southern counties of middle Tennessee. 

It still looks like some areas will receive as much as 3″ of rain in a fairly short amount of time, so flash flooding will be likely.  TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN if you approach a roadway covered with water.

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Tennessee farmers are having a much better spring this time around.

Check out where you can find Strawberry Patches… most will pick for you or you can pick your own.

It looks like the berries will last another few weeks since we are not too hot!

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As you can see above, the Storm Prediction Center has Middle Tennessee under a “slight risk” for severe weather on Thursday from Nashville southward.  As you can read in their 2 Day Convective Outlook they don’t see tomorrow as a large widespread tornado outbreak.  However, they emphasize that there could still be some damaging wind gusts in some of the storms, and can’t totally rule out an isolated tornado.  I might add that some of the heavy downpours could cause some localized flooding.

Please read my previous entry for more on the amounts of rain expected.

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Forecasted rain amounts by midnight tomorrow night from Predictor.

We are seeing a break in the morning’s continuous rains in Nashville, with only isolated showers expected the rest of the afternoon.   Our southern counties, generally south of Columbia, will still see another wave of continuous rain through lunchtime, and then they too will only see isolated showers the rest of the afternoon. 

And then the second round of rain arrives overnight tonight.  As low pressure forms in the Mississippi Valley and heads our way, expect quite a bit of rain.  The above graphic shows rain amounts up to 3″ in our southern and southeastern counties (by midnight tomorrow night/Friday A.M.) that have not had as much rain as we have had in Nashville.  Some 4″ amounts are seen in northern Alabama where the drought was even worse. 

There is the chance that some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe on Thursday.  Localized flooding is also a possibility in some of the heavier downpours. 

The Storm Prediction Center’s Two Day Convective Outlook will be updated at 12:30pm today, and I will add an entry to www.nashvillewx.com  when it comes out.  As this time we are under a “slight risk” from Nashville southward for Thursday.

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Showers and t’showers west of Nashville overnight… not expecting any severe storms. 

This activity could stretch into Nashville for the morning commute.

More scattered showers and storms, especially west half, on Wednesday.

Another round expected Thursday.

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